SPEI - Project Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis

Speaker Mark McLane and Jim Gouveia
Rose & Associates Mark A. McLane is a Partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A). R&A provides risk analysis education, software and consulting services for more than 40 companies worldwide. He is a Distinguished Lecturer of the Society of Petroleum Engineers on the topic of “Reserve ...


Rose & Associates



Mark A. McLane is a Partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A). R&A provides risk analysis education, software and consulting services for more than 40 companies worldwide. He is a Distinguished Lecturer of the Society of Petroleum Engineers on the topic of “Reserve Overbooking – An Issue of Professional Ethics.” He has a diverse technical and business background spanning 25 years in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in January 2000 after three years with Pioneer Natural Resources and 17 years with Exxon Company, U.S.A. He has co-authored several technical papers and served on the Professional Ethics/Registration Panel at the 2003 SPE ATCE in Denver, Colorado. He has taught courses for the Gulf Coast Section of SPE, AAPG and the Houston Geological Society. He holds a BSc with Honors in Petroleum Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.



 



James (Jim) Gouveia, P .Eng., is a Partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A). R&A provides risk analysis education, software and consulting services for more than 40 Companies’ world-wide. He is a registered Professional Engineer with a diverse technical, business and operations background in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in March 2002 after 18 years with Amoco, where his last role was Director of Risk Management for North America, and 3 years with BP Canada where he initiated and managed BP’s foray back into unconventional resources in Canada. He has co-authored and presented several papers, most recently “A Statistical Approach to the Effective Economic Modeling and Portfolio Selection of Unconventional Resource Opportunities”, at EUROPEC 2009. He has taught courses in over 25 countries for Rose & Associates.  He is a member of APEGGA, SPE, and AAPG.



Full Description
 

Description

This offering covers the application of Risk and Uncertainty management principles as they apply to Decision Quality Analysis in the development of our subsurface accumulations of oil and gas.  With a background set by the first day on Statistics and Probabilities, estimating under Uncertainty, and probabilistic Reserves estimation principles.  The second day will feature the determination of Chance of Geological and Commercial success, and will focus on the use of Decision Trees to assess the Value of New Information. 

Topics Covered

  • Introduction to Probability and Statistics as the Language of Uncertainty.
    • Distribution Types and when to use what
    • The Central Limits theorem
    • Sampling and the number of samples required to validate a distribution
    • When to use the Mode, the Mean or the Median
    • Dependencies and their impact
  • Estimating Under Uncertainty
    • What is an 80% Confidence Interval
    • Directly estimating P50’s versus ranges
    • How to develop P10 to P90 Ranges
    • Exercises focused on developing better estimating skills with an emphasis on estimating in ranges, rather than single values
  • Volumetric Reserves Estimation.
    • Distribution Types
    • Sources of Uncertainty
    • Average Concept – Porosity. Saturations, and Net pay
    • Type Curve Development
    • Probabilistic reserve estimation
    • Aggregation Principles
  • Geologic Chance of Success (Pg) and Commercial chance of success (Pc)
    • Review of our 5 Component System for Pg
    • How to determine the Pc. Chance of Commercial Success
  • Decision Trees and the Value of Information.
    • Decision Tree Basics
    • The Value of Perfect Information – Seismic example
    • The application of Bayes’ Theorem – with several exercises.
    • Contingent well locations, how to deal with conditional probabilities
    • The Value of Imperfect Information
    • Dealing with Complex traps using Decision trees
    • Multi-Zone Analysis with partial dependencies between zones

Who Should Attend

Petroleum Engineers, Geologists, Geophysicists, Managers, Petrophysicists, Log Analysts, and others involved with making quality decisions in the development of subsurface hydrocarbon accumulations.

CEUs

1.6 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 2-day course.

Organizer Cindy Davis

When?

Sat, Oct. 29 - Sun, Oct. 30, 2011
8 a.m. - 5 p.m. US/Mountain

Where?

SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition
Denver, Colorado
USA

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