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This offering covers the application of Risk and Uncertainty management principles as they apply to Decision Quality Analysis in the development of our subsurface accumulations of oil and gas.  With a background set by the first day on Statistics and Probabilities, estimating under Uncertainty, and probabilistic Reserves estimation principles.  The second day will feature the determination of Chance of Geological and Commercial success, and will focus on the use of Decision Trees to assess the Value of New Information. 

Topics Covered

• Introduction to Probability and Statistics as the Language of Uncertainty.
  • Distribution Types and when to use what
  • The Central Limits theorem
  • Sampling and the number of samples required to validate a distribution
  • When to use the Mode, the Mean or the Median
  • Dependencies and their impact
• Estimating Under Uncertainty
  • What is an 80% Confidence Interval
  • Directly estimating P50’s versus ranges
  • How to develop P10 to P90 Ranges
  • Exercises focused on developing better estimating skills with an emphasis on estimating in ranges, rather than single values
• Volumetric Reserves Estimation.
  • Distribution Types
  • Sources of Uncertainty
  • Average Concept – Porosity. Saturations, and Net pay
  • Type Curve Development
  • Probabilistic reserve estimation
  • Aggregation Principles
• Geologic Chance of Success (Pg) and Commercial chance of success (Pc)
  • Review of our 5 Component System for Pg
  • How to determine the Pc. Chance of Commercial Success
• Decision Trees and the Value of Information.
  • Decision Tree Basics
  • The Value of Perfect Information – Seismic example
  • The application of Bayes’ Theorem – with several exercises.
  • Contingent well locations, how to deal with conditional probabilities
  • The Value of Imperfect Information
  • Dealing with Complex traps using Decision trees
  • Multi-Zone Analysis with partial dependencies between zones