Decision analysis is the overarching decision process, which explicitly addresses the fact that, ultimately, decision-making is human. In large organizations, humans have to make complex, expensive decisions, riddled with risk and uncertainty. Recognizing this, decision analysis weaves facilitation and mathematical and organizational behavior tools into a winning process that is helping companies all over the energy sector make better decisions, faster.
Although the decision analysis process is often customized from company to company, and therefore may look slightly different, it always comprises three distinct elements: framing, uncertainty analysis, and decision-maker dialogue. Each element has set objectives and tools to accomplish those objectives.
This presentation provides an overview of decision analysis and its many applications in the oil industry - from exploration through development asset strategy to valuing seismic, well tests and pilot programs. Examples of decision framing, uncertainty analysis and information valuation will be discussed, as well as elements of successful implementation and tools.