April 20, 2020


Description

Almost everyone says that we will get through this. I wonder what things will be like when we do. It seems likely that oil markets and, therefore, the world economy will be quite different. Shale plays will continue to supply more than half of U.S. oil but total output may be lower. Many companies will disappear. I doubt that oil production or prices will return to 2018 levels for many years. Almost everyone says that we will get through this. I wonder what things will be like when we do. It seems likely that oil markets and, therefore, the world economy will be quite different.Energy is the economy and oil is the largest and most productive part of world energy. The global economy has been dying of accumulated debt for 50 years. Coronavirus has sent it to the intensive care unit. The closing of the world economy has caused the greatest demand decrease at least since the 1980s and probably ever. I anticipate an 18 million barrel per day maximum annual demand decrease in the second quarter of 2020. Unlike other models, this does not include a rapid economic recovery in the third quarter. That’s because I don’t believe that the world will go back to work in May. I doubt that the world will go back to work in June.  

It seems unlikely that what is happening today will cause society to experience some transformative epiphany that will end the age of oil. If anything, we will need inexpensive liquid fuel more than ever in a poorer world. Rather than seeing 2020 as a year of unspeakable loss, it is my sincere wish that we somehow find ways to live better with somewhat less.


Featured Speakers

Speaker: Arthur E. Berman,	 Director Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc
Speaker Arthur E. Berman, Director Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc
Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 42 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector. He routinely gives keynote addresses for energy conferences, boards of directors …

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 42 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector. He routinely gives keynote addresses for energy conferences, boards of directors and professional societies. Berman has published more than 100 articles on oil and gas plays and trends. He has been interviewed about oil and gas topics on CBS, CNBC, CNN, CBC, Platt’s Energy Week, BNN, Bloomberg, Platt’s, The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, Rolling Stone and The New York Times. Berman is an associate editor of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin, and was a managing editor and frequent contributor to theoildrum.com. He is a Director of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, and has served on the boards of directors of The Houston Geological Society and The Society of Independent Professional Earth Scientists. He worked 20 years for Amoco (now BP) and 22 years as consulting geologist. He has an M.S. (Geology) from the Colorado School of Mines and a B.A. (History) from Amherst College. Website: artberman.com

Full Description



Organizer

Romina Myrtaj


Date and Time

Mon, April 20, 2020

noon - 1 p.m.
(GMT-0500) US/Central

Event has ended

Location

At your computer



Group(s): Permian Basin