Dec. 10, 2019


Description

One of the central questions in science is forecasting: based on the past history, how well can we predict the future? In many domains with complex multivariate correlation structures and nonlinear dynamics, forecasting is highly challenging. In the oil and gas industry, forecasting decline curves is an important component for E&P companies in business planning, asset evaluation, and decision making. Here we introduce a machine learning approach to tackle the problem, and to be more specific, an LSTM approach (LSTM stands for Long Short Term Memory, which is one kind of recurrent neural network). Compared with the hyperbolic approach, the LSTM model is more dynamic and has a better chance of capturing non-linear events. We build the prediction model from the accumulated curve domain, and eventually ensemble multiple models to reduce the variance.  Given the fact that the model is only trained on the first 3 months of data , the prediction for the first 2 years shows great promise.


Featured Speakers

Speaker: Cheng Zhan
Speaker Cheng Zhan
Cheng Zhan joined Anadarko Petroleum (now Occidental Petroleum) as a senior data scientist in 2018, where he works on field development optimization and long-term production forecasting. He focuses on building machine learning algorithms to create strategic and financial impact for the company. Prior to his current role, he worked as …

Cheng Zhan joined Anadarko Petroleum (now Occidental Petroleum) as a senior data scientist in 2018, where he works on field development optimization and long-term production forecasting. He focuses on building machine learning algorithms to create strategic and financial impact for the company. Prior to his current role, he worked as a Geophysicist at TGS and CGG, utilizing seismic data and inversion methods to help operators make better decisions in exploration. He holds a PhD in mathematics from University of Houston, and a B.S. in Mathematics from Sun Yat-sen University.

Full Description



Organizer

Kelsey Ridpath


Date and Time

Tue, Dec. 10, 2019

11 a.m. - 1 p.m.
(GMT-0500) US/Central

Event has ended

Location

Landry's Seafood House

1212 Lake Robbins Dr
The Woodlands, TX 77380
United States of America



Group(s): Northside