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During this course, participants work directly with spreadsheet-based risk simulation software (either Crystal Ball or @Risk) to examine and modify prepared models and to create simple models of their own. Participants will also analyze historical data using histograms, cross plots, correlation in Excel, and software to fit probability distributions to data. Several worksheet models are included. The course covers software basics such as menus, settings, distributions, outputs, graphics, statistics, sensitivity, analysis, interpreting results, and creating reports.
- Monte Carlo simulation and the language of statistics
- Simulation design
- Crystal Ball (or @RISK) features, including inputs, outputs, settings, simulation and reports
- Models to estimate reserves
- Changing distribution types and parameters
- Production and economic forecasts
- Operating and capital expenses
- Cross plots and correlation in Excel
- Handling rare events
- Comprehensive models and linking model components
- Class Problems
This course helps with making better business decisions by addressing the uncertainty and risks that occur during projects or planning. Better allocation of money for budgeting is needed, particularly in a competitive environment with significant swings in prices and expectations. Because of that, it becomes even more important to plan ahead for variations and for what might be beyond single numbers.
Who Should Attend
This course is intended for engineers, geologists and geophysicists, managers, planners, economists and technical support staff.
Attendees must bring a laptop to class. No previous knowledge of the subject is assumed, although you should be familiar with Excel. Participants are also expected to have experience using models to solve problems, such as production or economic forecasting, estimating reserves or scheduling.
1.6 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 2-day course.