Reservoir: Bayesian Logic for Fun and Profit

Speaker: Patrick Leach
Speaker Patrick Leach
Patrick Leach has over thirty years of experience in the energy industry, ranging from New Orleans to Indonesia, Scotland, and now Houston.  He joined Decision Strategies Inc. in 2004 as a Senior Consultant, and became CEO of the company in August of 2011.  He is the author of Why Can't ...

Patrick Leach has over thirty years of experience in the energy industry, ranging from New Orleans to Indonesia, Scotland, and now Houston.  He joined Decision Strategies Inc. in 2004 as a Senior Consultant, and became CEO of the company in August of 2011.  He is the author of Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? - An executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and to make better decisions.  He wass also an SPE Distinguished Lecturer during 2012-2013.


 


Mr. Leach has a B. Sci. degree from the University of Rochester and an MBA from the University of Houston.  He is a Charter Fellow in the Society of Decision Professionals, and holds memberships in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Society of Petroleum Engineers, the Decision Analysis Affinity Group, and the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science.peleach-120720-head-shot-2-.jpg

Full Description

If an athlete tests positive for performance-enhancing drugs, what is the probability that he or she is actually doping?  If police increase foot patrols in an urban neighborhood but property crime increases anyway, should the foot patrols be declared ineffective and discontinued?

In an oil and gas context, suppose you drill one of two fault blocks which are adjacent to your producing field and you find it to be hydrocarbon-bearing.  By how much should you increase your chance of success for the other block?  If you run a well test and the results indicate that the reservoir compartment is large, how sure should you be that the compartment is, in fact, large?

“Bayesian logic” may sound arcane, but it is critical to correctly incorporating new information into our view of the world (or reservoir).  It is even how one explains the infamous Monte Hall problem, in which a contestant who has chosen a b

ox (which may or may not contain a prize) has to decide whether to trade for a different box.

Organizer Miles Palke

When?

Thu, Oct. 24, 2013
11:30 a.m. - 1 p.m. America/Chicago

How Much?

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Where?

The Courtyard on St. James Place
1885 St. James Place
Houston, Texas 77056-4110
USA

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