Oct. 18, 2010


Description

Course Description

This hands-on course shows participants how to choose among competing alternatives and to quantify
the value of additional information. Typical applications include drill on or set pipe; fish or sidetrack;
explore or divest; short or long test; buy information such as 3-D seismic or RFT survey. This is a
seminar-style presentation with computers. Students are taught to apply classic decision tree methods to
solve problems. Participants learn how to do sensitivity analysis and how a decision tree process helps to frame a problem. Several examples will be worked. Please note this course is hands-on computer
training. Topics covered include the following:

  • Node and Branch Types
  • Assigning Probability and Values
  • Expected Value Interpretations
  • Solving a Tree
  • Dependence and Conditional Probability
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Bayes' Theorem
  • States of Nature and Types of Forecasts
  • Sensitivity Tables
  • Perfect vs Imperfect Information
  • Examples and Problems
  • Software Demonstrations

Who Should Attend

The course is intended for engineers, geologists, geophysicists, managers, planners, economists, and
technical support staff. Participants are expected to have experience applying models to solve problems
such as production or economic forecasting, reserve estimation, or scheduling.

CEUs

0.8  (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 1-day course.

For more details, please contact us at trainingcourses@spe.org


Featured Speakers

Speaker Jim Murtha and Susan Peterson
Jim Murtha, a registered petroleum engineer, presents seminars and training courses and advises clients in building probabilistic models in risk analysis and decision making. Jim is an industry-recognized expert on risk and decision analysis; he was elected to SPE Distinguished Membership in 1999, the recipient of the 1998 SPE Award …



Jim Murtha, a registered petroleum engineer, presents seminars and training courses and advises clients in building probabilistic models in risk analysis and decision making. Jim is an industry-recognized expert on risk and decision analysis; he was elected to SPE Distinguished Membership in 1999, the recipient of the 1998 SPE Award in Economics and Evaluation, and was 1996-7 SPE Distinguished Lecturer in Risk and Decision Analysis. Since 1992, over 5000 professionals have taken his classes. He has published Decisions Involving Uncertainty - An @RISK Tutorial for the Petroleum Industry and he is the principal author of the chapter on Risk Analysis and Decision Making for the New SPE Petroleum Engineering Handbook.  In 25 years of academic experience, he chaired a math department, taught petroleum engineering, served as academic dean of a college, and co-authored two texts in mathematics and statistics. Jim has a Ph.D. in mathematics from the U of Wisconsin, a MS in petroleum & natural gas engineering from Penn State, and a BS in mathematics from Marietta College.



Susan Peterson has more than 20 years of experience as a consultant, project manager/senior drilling engineer, and instructor. She specializes in the application of risk analysis and decision methods for full field development optimization and AFE time and cost models. As a consultant, she performs project specific risk analysis and provides training on decision and risk analysis. Peterson led a risk analysis and decision methods initiative, and has been responsible for the risk analysis on projects that ranged from fast-track remote gas field development to large capital expenditure oil development. She holds a PhD and MS from Texas A&M University, and a BS from Marietta College, all in petroleum engineering.



Full Description



Organizer

Chiwila Mumba-Black


Date and Time

Mon, Oct. 18, 2010

8 a.m. - 5 p.m.
(GMT-0500) US/Central


Location

Houston Training Center

10777 Westheimer Road Suite 1075
Houston, Texas 77042
USA