Description
Course Description
This hands-on course shows participants how to choose among competing alternatives and to quantify
the value of additional information. Typical applications include drill on or set pipe; fish or sidetrack;
explore or divest; short or long test; buy information such as 3-D seismic or RFT survey. This is a
seminar-style presentation with computers. Students are taught to apply classic decision tree methods to
solve problems. Participants learn how to do sensitivity analysis and how a decision tree process helps to frame a problem. Several examples will be worked. Please note this course is hands-on computer
training. Topics covered include the following:
- Node and Branch Types
- Assigning Probability and Values
- Expected Value Interpretations
- Solving a Tree
- Dependence and Conditional Probability
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Bayes' Theorem
- States of Nature and Types of Forecasts
- Sensitivity Tables
- Perfect vs Imperfect Information
- Examples and Problems
- Software Demonstrations
Who Should Attend
The course is intended for engineers, geologists, geophysicists, managers, planners, economists, and
technical support staff. Participants are expected to have experience applying models to solve problems
such as production or economic forecasting, reserve estimation, or scheduling.
CEUs
0.8 (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 1-day course.