SPEI: Monte Carlo Simulation for the Oil and Gas Industry

Speaker Jim Murtha and Susan Peterson
Jim Murtha, a registered petroleum engineer, presents seminars and training courses and advises clients in building probabilistic models in risk analysis and decision making. Jim is an industry-recognized expert on risk and decision analysis; he was elected to SPE Distinguished Membership in 1999, the recipient of the 1998 SPE Award ...



Jim Murtha, a registered petroleum engineer, presents seminars and training courses and advises clients in building probabilistic models in risk analysis and decision making. Jim is an industry-recognized expert on risk and decision analysis; he was elected to SPE Distinguished Membership in 1999, the recipient of the 1998 SPE Award in Economics and Evaluation, and was 1996-7 SPE Distinguished Lecturer in Risk and Decision Analysis. Since 1992, over 5000 professionals have taken his classes. He has published Decisions Involving Uncertainty - An @RISK Tutorial for the Petroleum Industry and he is the principal author of the chapter on Risk Analysis and Decision Making for the New SPE Petroleum Engineering Handbook.  In 25 years of academic experience, he chaired a math department, taught petroleum engineering, served as academic dean of a college, and co-authored two texts in mathematics and statistics. Jim has a Ph.D. in mathematics from the U of Wisconsin, a MS in petroleum & natural gas engineering from Penn State, and a BS in mathematics from Marietta College.



Susan Peterson has more than 20 years of experience as a consultant, project manager/senior drilling engineer, and instructor. Dr. Peterson specializes in the application of risk analysis and decision methods for full field development optimization and AFE time and cost models. As a consultant, she performs project-specific risk analysis and provides training on decision and risk analysis. Peterson led a risk analysis and decision methods initiative, and has been responsible for the risk analysis on projects that ranged from fast-track remote gas field development to large capital expenditure oil development. She holds PhD and MS degrees from Texas A&M University and a BS degree from Marietta College, all in petroleum engineering.



Full Description

Course Description

This hands-on course features spreadsheet add-in risk simulation software (either Crystal Ball or @Risk). Models in exploration (reserves and P(S)), drilling, production, and economics, along with descriptive statistics in Excel will give a close look at several probability distributions and their applications. The course will cover software basics including menus, settings, distributions, outputs, graphics, statistics, sensitivity analysis, interpreting results, and creating reports. Focus of the course is on examining and modifying prepared models and building simple models. In addition, participants will analyze historical data using histograms, crossplots, correlation in Excel, and software to fit probability distributions to data. Several worksheet models are included. Some familiarity with Excel is expected. Topics covered include:

  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Language of Statistics
  • Steps in Simulation Design
  • Crystal Ball (or @RISK) Features: Inputs, Outputs, Settings, Simulation, Reports
  • Models to Estimate Reserves * Changing Distribution Types and Parameters
  • Production and Economic Forecasts
  • Prices
  • Operating Expenses
  • Capital Expenditures
  • Cross Plots and Correlation in Excel
  • Most Estimating Models
  • Handling Rare Events
  • Comprehensive Models
  • Linking Model Components
  • Class Problems

Learning Objectives

  • Develop skill at building practical probabilistic models for business decisions
  • Understand Monte Carlo simulation
  • Learn how to analyze data and to select defensible distributions
  • Be able to converse using  the language of probability and statistics
  • Understand the Central Limit theorem and its implications
  • Know how to properly build volumetric estimates of resources and reserves
  • Discover defendable ways to incorporate risk and uncertainty into time and cost estimates
  • Apply sensitivity and scenario analysis for risk management and strategic planning

Who Should Attend

The course is intended for engineers, geologists and geophysicists, managers, planners, economists and technical support staff. Participants are expected to have experience using models to solve problems (e.g. production or economic forecasting, reserve estimation, scheduling) and to be comfortable with spreadsheets. No previous knowledge of the subject is assumed.

CEUs

1.6 (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 2-day course.

Cancellation Policy

A fee equal to 25% of the course fee will be charged for cancellations less than 15 working days before the course begins. No refunds will be made for cancellations after the course begins.

For more details, please contact us at trainingcourses@spe.org

Organizer Chiwila Mumba-Black

When?

Mon, Aug. 16 - Tue, Aug. 17, 2010
8 a.m. - 5 p.m. US/Central

Where?

Houston Training Center
10777 Westheimer Road Suite 1075
Houston, Texas 77042
USA

Refund Policy: You must notify the SPE-GCS office of your intent to cancel at least 24 hours prior to the event date to receive a refund. For all refund inquiries, email spe-gcs@spe.org. View our Terms & Conditions for more information.