CANCELLED: SPEI: Monte Carlo Simulation

Speaker James Murtha and Susan Peterson
Jim Murtha presents seminars and training courses and advises clients in building probabilistic models in risk analysis and decision making. He is an industry-recognized expert on risk and decision analysis; he was named a Distinguished Membership of SPE in 1999, the recipient of 1998 SPE Award in Economics and Evaluation, ...


Jim Murtha presents seminars and training courses and advises clients in building probabilistic models in risk analysis and decision making. He is an industry-recognized expert on risk and decision analysis; he was named a Distinguished Membership of SPE in 1999, the recipient of 1998 SPE Award in Economics and Evaluation, and was 1996-97 SPE Distinguished Lecturer on risk and decision  analysis. Since 1992, more than 2,200 professionals have taken his classes. He has published Decisions Involving Uncertainty- an @RISK Tutorial for the petroleum professionals. In 25 years of academic experience, he chaired a math department, taught petroleum engineering, served as academic dean of a college, and coauthored two texts in mathematics and statistics. Murtha has a Ph.D. degree in mathematics from the U. of Wisconsin, an MS degree in petroleum and natural gas engineering from Penn State U., and a BS in mathematics from Marietta College.



Susan Peterson has more than 20 years' experience as a consultant, project manager/senior drilling engineer, and instructor. She specializes in the application of risk analysis and decision methods for full field development optimization and AFE time and cost models. As a consultant, she performs project specific risk analysis and provides training on decision and risk analysis. Peterson led a risk analysis and decision methods initiative, and has been responsible for the risk analysis on projects that ranged from fast-track remote gas field development to large capital expenditure oil development. She holds Ph.D. and MS degrees from Texas A&M University and a BS degree from Marietta College, all in petroleum engineering.


Full Description

THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

Description

This hands-on course features spreadsheet add-in risk simulation software (either Crystal Ball or @Risk).

Models in exploration (reserves and P(S)), drilling, production, and economics, along with descriptive

statistics in Excel will give a close look at several probability distributions and their applications. The

course will cover software basics including menus, settings, distributions, outputs, graphics, statistics,

sensitivity analysis, interpreting results, and creating reports. Focus of the course is on examining and

modifying prepared models and building simple models. In addition, participants will analyze historical

data using histograms, crossplots, correlation in Excel, and software to fit probability distributions to data.

Several worksheet models are included. Some familiarity with Excel is expected.

Topics Covered

Monte Carlo Simulation

Language of Statistics

Steps in Simulation Design

Crystal Ball (or @RISK) Features: Inputs, Outputs, Settings, Simulation, Reports

Models to Estimate Reserves * Changing Distribution Types and Parameters

Production and Economic Forecasts

Prices

Operating Expenses

Capital Expenditures

Cross Plots and Correlation in Excel

ost Estimating Models

Handling Rare Events

Comprehensive Models

Linking Model Components

Class Problems

Organizer Kristen Lee

When?

Mon, Jun. 7 - Tue, Jun. 8, 2010
8 a.m. - 5 p.m. US/Central

Where?

TBA

Refund Policy: You must notify the SPE-GCS office of your intent to cancel at least 24 hours prior to the event date to receive a refund. For all refund inquiries, email spe-gcs@spe.org. View our Terms & Conditions for more information.