Petroleum engineers, geologists, geophysicists, managers and others involved with the design or implementation of risk analysis systems in the development environment.
Introductory course about the application of systematic risk analysis to identify, quantify and manage the risks and uncertainties involved with modern petroleum field development and production. The instructors, both petroleum engineers, are experienced practitioners and educators with broad and diverse expertise in all facets of E&P project characterization and risk analysis.
♦ Introduction to probability and statistics as the language of uncertainty, including a discussion of
the different types of distributions and how to apply them
♦ Discussion of the impact of dependencies of variables and how to model them
♦ Exercises focused on developing better estimating skills with an emphasis on estimating in
ranges, rather than single values
♦ Tools and techniques for identifying which variables have the greatest impact on overall project value
♦ Probabilistic reserve estimating using: analog analysis, volumetric analysis, material balance, decline curves and reservoir simulation
♦ Developing credible probabilistic production forecasts
♦ Geologic, non-geologic and commercial chance of success
♦ Building economic models from base case through multiple scenarios
♦ Introduction to portfolio rollup principles and portfolio management
♦ Systematic performance tracking to calibrate estimates and improve predictability