Price of Oil - Avoiding Common Pitfalls During an Industry Downturn

Speaker: Patrick Leach
Speaker Patrick Leach
Patrick Leach has over thirty years of experience in industry and consulting, ranging from New Orleans to Indonesia, Scotland, and Houston.  He joined Decision Strategies Inc. in 2004 as a Senior Consultant, and was CEO of the company from August of 2011 through July of 2016.  He now works as ...

Patrick Leach has over thirty years of experience in industry and consulting, ranging from New Orleans to Indonesia, Scotland, and Houston.  He joined Decision Strategies Inc. in 2004 as a Senior Consultant, and was CEO of the company from August of 2011 through July of 2016.  He now works as an independent strategy consultant.


Mr. Leach is the author of Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? - An executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and to make better decisions, which is now out in its Second Edition.  He was also a Distinguished Lecturer during 2012-2013 for the SPE.  He has written numerous pieces in his blog, The Decision Point, regarding the need to move toward sustainable business practices and how to use the principles of decision analysis and behavioral economics to develop strategies to do so.

Full Description

Keeping Your Head When Those About You Are Losing Theirs – Avoiding common pitfalls during an industry downturn

During the oil and gas downturn of the mid-1980s, a bumper sticker was seen in Texas and Louisiana: “Please, God, grant me one more oil boom and I promise this time I won’t blow it.”  But of course, there were more booms, and most people still blew it.  The industry seems to be incapable of learning from history.  When oil & gas prices are high, companies behave as though the good times will never end; when prices drop, companies slash costs and payrolls as though prices will never rise again.

Much of this behavior is driven by shareholder expectations.  However, there are a number of common pitfalls in logic and decision making that can and should be avoided during a downturn.  These include:

-              Adopting a gambler’s attitude toward risk

-              The endowment phenomenon

-              The immediacy phenomenon

-              Considering sunk costs when making decisions

-              Seeking validation

-              Falling into Groupthink

-              Excessive risk aversion

-              Failure to consider competitors’ perspectives and possible actions

-              Embracing and implementing the first potential solution that presents itself

This talk will explore these traps and discuss how to avoid them

Register for a season pass

Organizer Sean Liburd

When?

Wed, Oct. 19, 2016
4 p.m. - 5:45 p.m. US/Central

How Much?

A $5 donation for the SPE-GCS Scholarship Fund has automatically been added to the registration fee. Use OptOut in the Discount Code field if you do not wish to donate at this time.
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Where?

Texas A&M Mays Business School at CityCentre
842 W . Sam Houston Parkway North Suite 200
Houston, TX 77024

Parking in CITYCENTRE garages is free.
Valet parking at either Hotel Sorella or Capital Grille is $8.


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