Reservoir: How to Predict Reservoir Performance with Subsurface Uncertainty at Multiple Scales
Subsurface uncertainty is one of the main challenges in using reservoir models to predict field performance for development and depletion planning purposes. The importance of reliable characterization of subsurface uncertainty and its impact on reservoir performance predictions is essential to robust decision making in the upstream industry, and this is especially true for large projects in complex geologic settings. However, despite recent advances in reservoir modeling and simulation, reliable quantification of the impact of subsurface uncertainty remains difficult in practice. This lecture presents an analysis of the challenge and possible resolutions. Relying on computing power alone may not address the challenge. Instead, we must look at reservoir modeling and performance prediction holistically, from modeling objectives to appropriate techniques of incorporating reservoir heterogeneity into models.
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