SPEI: Monte Carlo Simulation



This hands-on course features spreadsheet add-in risk simulation software (either Crystal Ball or @Risk). Models in exploration (reserves and P(S)), drilling, production, and economics, along with descriptive statistics in Excel will give a close look at several probability distributions and their applications. The course will cover software basics including menus, settings, distributions, outputs, graphics, statistics, sensitivity analysis, interpreting results, and creating reports. Focus of the course is on examining and modifying prepared models and building simple models. In addition, participants will analyze historical data using histograms, crossplots, correlation in Excel, and software to fit probability distributions to data. Several worksheet models are included. Some familiarity with Excel is expected.

Topics Covered

  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Language of Statistics
  • Steps in Simulation Design
  • Crystal Ball (or @RISK) Features: Inputs, Outputs, Settings, Simulation, Reports
  • Models to Estimate Reserves * Changing Distribution Types and Parameters
  • Production and Economic Forecasts
  • Prices
  • Operating Expenses
  • Capital Expenditures
  • Cross Plots and Correlation in Excel
  • Most Estimating Models
  • Handling Rare Events
  • Comprehensive Models
  • Linking Model Components
  • Class Problems

Learning Objectives

  • Develop skill at building practical probabilistic models for business decisions
  • Understand Monte Carlo simulation
  • Learn how to analyze data and to select defensible distributions
  • Be able to converse using  the language of probability and statistics
  • Understand the Central Limit theorem and its implications
  • Know how to properly build volumetric estimates of resources and reserves
  • Discover defendable ways to incorporate risk and uncertainty into time and cost estimates
  • Apply sensitivity and scenario analysis for risk management and strategic planning

Who Should Attend

The course is intended for engineers, geologists and geophysicists, managers, planners, economists and technical support staff. Participants are expected to have experience using models to solve problems (e.g. production or economic forecasting, reserve estimation, scheduling) and to be comfortable with spreadsheets. No previous knowledge of the subject is assumed.


1.6 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 2-day course.

Location: SPEI Houston Training Center
10777 Westheimer Rd.
Houston , TX 77042

Date: Sept. 27, 2011, 8 a.m. - Sept. 28, 2011, 4:30 p.m.