- Introduction to probability and statistics as the language of uncertainty, including a discussion of the different types of distributions and how to apply them;
- Discussion of the impact of dependencies of variables and how to model them;
- Exercises focused on developing better estimating skills with an emphasis on estimating with ranges, rather than single values;
- Building probabilistic reserve and resource estimates from commonly used methods;
- Value of Information, including how to deal with imperfect information using Bayes’ Theorem;
- Systematic performance tracking to calibrate estimates and improve predictability.
Who Should Attend
Petroleum engineers, geologists, geophysicists, managers and others involved with the design or implementation of risk analysis systems in the development environment.
About the Course
Introductory course about the application of systematic risk analysis to identify, quantify and manage the risks and uncertainties associated with petroleum field development and production. The instructor is an experienced practitioner and educator with broad and diverse expertise in all facets of E&P project characterization and risk analysis.