Event Description

Intended Audience

Petroleum engineers, geologists, geophysicists, managers and others involved with the design or implementation of risk analysis systems in the development environment.

Description

Introductory course about the application of systematic risk analysis to identify, quantify and manage the risks and uncertainties involved with modern petroleum field development and production. The instructors, both petroleum engineers, are experienced practitioners and educators with broad and diverse expertise in all facets of E&P project characterization and risk analysis.

Topics Covered

♦ Introduction to probability and statistics as the language of uncertainty, including a discussion of

the different types of distributions and how to apply them

♦ Discussion of the impact of dependencies of variables and how to model them

♦ Exercises focused on developing better estimating skills with an emphasis on estimating in

ranges, rather than single values

♦ Tools and techniques for identifying which variables have the greatest impact on overall project value

♦ Probabilistic reserve estimating using: analog analysis, volumetric analysis, material balance, decline curves and reservoir simulation

♦ Developing credible probabilistic production forecasts

♦ Geologic, non-geologic and commercial chance of success

♦ Building economic models from base case through multiple scenarios

♦ Introduction to portfolio rollup principles and portfolio management

♦ Systematic performance tracking to calibrate estimates and improve predictability

Attachments


Event Contact	Event Coordinator
Chiwila Mumba-Black	Chiwila Mumba-Black
(972) 952-1114	(972) 952-1114

SPEI: Risk Analysis for Development Applications

Wednesday 24-Feb-10 8:00 AM to Thursday 25-Feb-10 5:00 PM CST

Speaker Mark McLane, Gary Citron

Company: Rose and Associates

Biography

Mark A. McLane is a Partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates, LLP (R&A). R&A provides risk analysis education, software and consulting services for more than 40 companies worldwide. He is a Distinguished Lecturer of the Society of Petroleum Engineers on the topic of “Reserve Overbooking – An Issue of Professional Ethics.” He has a diverse technical and business background spanning 25 years in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in January 2000 after three years with Pioneer Natural Resources and 17 Years with Exxon Company, U.S.A. He has co-authored several technical papers and served on the Professional Ethics/Registration Panel at the 2003 SPE ATCE in Denver, Colorado. He has taught courses for the Gulf Coast Section of SPE, AAPG and the Houston Geological Society. He holds a BSc with Honors in Petroleum Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.

Gary P. Citron (BS, Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo; MS &

PhD in Geology, Cornell University). After a twenty year career as a geoscientist, manager, and internal consultant for Amoco exploration business, Gary joined Pete Rose’s consulting firm in February1999, which focuses on the field of prospect and play risk analysis. Gary became

Pete’s first Partner in Rose & Associates, LLP in 2001 and assumed the role of

Managing Partner in 2003.

In his last assignment at Amoco, he worked with exploration teams worldwide for four years, helping them assess prospect component ranges and associated chance factors. Dr. Citron has developed expertise in consensus building in risk assessments and performance tracking. He also coordinated the yearly post appraisal of the drilling program which helped institutionalize learning throughout the exploration business.

Presently, he helps companies benchmark their predictive performance against companies in their peergroup. In 1999 he was selected by the AAPG to serve in their Visiting Geologist Program. While at Amoco, Dr. Citron actively mentored younger geoscientists on prospect measurement. In 2001, he received the best paper award from the AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and again in 2007 he was honored for delivering a ‘Top Ten Oral Presentation’ at the AAPG annual convention in Long Beach. Gary remains active in the AAPG House of Delegates, and continues to serve on committees for the AAPG and the SPE.

He is a Texas State certified and licensed Geologist who has authored or co-authored more than a dozen publications, and has been an invited and honored speaker for the SIPES, Geological Society of London, AAPG, SPE and SEG.